What does No Deal even mean?

Sorry, but sometimes things just need reiterating.

Article 50 is very blunt. It simply says that all treaties cease to apply on 29th March 2019. It has nothing to do with future arrangements.

All our current regulatory and trade cooperations and legislations etc will be disrupted when this happens. Trade deals cease. Mutual recognition of qualifications cease. Mutual recognition of safety standards cease. Aviation licences cease. Haulage licences cease. Credit card facilities cease. Mobile phone deals cease. Energy supplies are disrupted. etc etc. 

And not just with Europe. Many of our non-European global engagements happen under the EU umbrella. So the aviation issue, for example, affects flights to and from non-European destinations as well, such as US and Canada.

The talk of No Deal is not about Article 50. Article 50 has been triggered, regardless. All existing treaties cease to apply in six months' time. The question of Deal or No Deal refers to what arrangements we can agree to replace EU membership going forward. An outcome of No Deal has no impact on Article 50. Leave means Leave - remember? So either way, we are out. Treaties and agreements and frameworks of alignment fall away instantly. The issue of a deal is just what happens next.

And the clue is in the name. Deal means we have a new arrangement to replace what we have just ripped up. New terms for all our current arrangements. The scope of what is affected from trade to aviation to travel to satellites to intelligence sharing etc etc is so vast, there is no way it can be done in a hurry. Hence the two year transition period - even that is inadequate but it's something. Any deal whatsoever will be inferior to what we have now, by definition. You don't get better terms with a club by leaving it. We will continue to pay in and we will lose any say in how it operates.

No Deal is even worse. Again look at the name. It means we have failed to put in place new arrangements to replace what we have lost. Hence, everything stops. And that two year transition period? It only applies in the event of a deal. So No Deal means instant chaos in every single aspect of our lives. Everything.

And don't be fooled by lines such as "The Americans do such and such and they're not members". The point is, the US has agreements in place. We are talking specifically about having no agreements in place.

And don't be fooled by lines such as "They won't punish us". It's not about punishing. It's not in EU hands. If we have No Deal we will have no legal basis for anything.

March 29th 2019 all treaties cease to apply. It really is that stark.

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